Factors Behind India's Declining Influence
- Political unrest and change of government next door — The removal of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh in August 2024 brought an interim government under Muhammad Yunus that leans more towards China and Pakistan, and several India-backed projects there have since been put on hold.
- Growing Chinese presence through the Belt and Road Initiative — China is investing heavily in ports and roads across the region, seen most clearly in Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port, Bangladesh's Chattogram-area projects, and the Pokhara airport in Nepal, giving these countries an alternative to India for money and infrastructure.
- Old disputes still not settled — Issues like the Kalapani-Lipulekh border question with Nepal (Nepal now shows this area in its own official map), the Teesta water-sharing dispute with Bangladesh (a 2011 deal giving India 42.5 percent and Bangladesh 37.5 percent water was never enforced due to opposition in West Bengal), and the Suvidha tax matter with Bhutan keep coming in the way of trust.
- Harsh border practices and a 'big brother' image — Frequent firing by Indian forces along the Bangladesh border has created anger among common people there, while India is sometimes seen as interfering in the internal politics of smaller neighbours, as happened during Nepal's Madhesi agitation in 2015.
- Slow completion of promised projects — Apart from a few flagship works like the Greater Male Connectivity Project in the Maldives, many other committed projects face long delays and rising costs, which weakens India's name as a dependable partner.
- Neighbours choosing to balance between India and China — Smaller states are now asserting their own independence rather than fully siding with India, as seen in the 'India Out' campaign in the Maldives after the Greater Male airport contract was taken away from India's GMR group and given to a Chinese firm, and in China's role in Sri Lanka's 2018 political crisis that removed a pro-India prime minister.
Measures to Reverse the Trend
- Keep ties above the politics of the day — India should keep working with whichever government is in power in a neighbouring country, as it is already doing with the new set-ups in Dhaka and Kathmandu, so that relations do not depend on one leader or party alone.
- Finish committed projects on time — A proper tracking system for all announced projects can cut down delays and cost overruns, and help India build a name for actually delivering what it promises.
- Settle old disputes through talks — Quick and fair movement on the Teesta water treaty, the Kalapani-Lipulekh boundary question, and the Suvidha tax issue can remove long-standing sources of anger.
- Softer and joint border management — Moving away from firing towards joint patrolling and better fencing along the Bangladesh and Nepal borders will lower civilian deaths and reduce ill will.
- Give real trade access, not just loans — Along with credit lines, easier market access and more private investment can create a genuine give-and-take relationship rather than a one-sided one, in line with the old Gujral Doctrine of India offering more without always asking something back.
- Grow soft power and public goodwill — Scholarships, health help such as Vaccine Maitri, cultural exchange, and disaster relief, where India is usually the first country to respond, should be widened to win over ordinary people, not just governments.
- Offer strong alternatives to China's projects — Instead of only reacting to Chinese moves, India should push its own attractive options, such as reviving the Trincomalee energy hub in Sri Lanka or the Kaladan transport project with Myanmar, that stand well on their own merit.
⇒ India's neighbours are not turning away out of choice, but because they now have other options and some old complaints still remain unresolved. The way forward lies not in changing the policy's aim, but in matching it with speed, fairness and sensitivity, so that being a good neighbour becomes India's true strength rather than just a promise on paper.